Overview

With Congress now fully departed for the August recess, there now remains less than 12 weeks before Election Day for the 2026 midterms. Republican leadership in the House of Representatives and the Senate have been scrambling to pass a short-term funding bill to avert a government shutdown ahead of the October 1^st deadline, as well as a third budget reconciliation bill to deliver on President Donald Trump’s requests for additional funding for the war with Iran and other measures. Democrats still look on track to regain control of the House this fall, but the path to retaking the Senate has grown tougher following candidate scandals and contentious primaries.

Voting margins have largely stayed the same since the flurry of resignations in April. In the House, the Republicans continue to have 219 members (including one Independent who caucuses with them), and the Democrats remain at 212. However, Rep. Max Miller’s (R-OH-7) ethics probe is causing a headache for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA-4), who has stressed to reporters and other members to allow the process to play out. Additionally, two upcoming special elections to fill the seats of former Democratic Representatives Eric Swalwell (D-CA-14) and David Scott (D-GA-13), could narrow the margin again for Johnson.

In the Senate, the party breakdown remains 53-47, but the continued absence of former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has narrowed Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-SD) margin during floor votes. McConnell has announced his intent to return shortly and has continued to vote by proxy during committee votes.

Legislative Update

Prior to Senators departing for their August recess, they pushed through a bipartisan funding bill to keep the government open until December 11^th. The bill, which would keep federal funding level barring some programs, would avert a government shutdown in the critical month before the midterm elections. The measure passed 90-6 and the Senators will now have to reconcile with the House, which passed its own funding bill to keep the government open at the same levels through December 4^th, to come to a full agreement. However, there are roadblocks already forming as the Senate included a measure to prevent the Trump administration from overhauling grant administration putting political appointees in charge of approving and disbursing grants during this period. Several House members have voiced displeasure as they agreed with the President’s plan.

A short-term surface transportation extension was also included in the stop-gap funding bill, for Department of Transportation (DOT) and Federal Transit Administration (FTA) programs that are set to expire on September 30^th. Specifically, the Highway Trust Fund and General Fund, authorized under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), will be funded until December 11^th, and the remaining unobligated balances from the Highway Trust Fund for certain discretionary programs, but not formula programs, will be available until September 30^th, 2027. However, an extension of the advance appropriations from the IIJA was not added to the final version, despite heavy pressure from Democrats for its inclusion. The package will now head to the House where it is not immediately clear whether they will take it up.

The other main legislative priority for Republicans is figuring out what to do with Reconciliation 3.0. The push for a historic third reconciliation bill in a term took another step forward after the Senate released their counter proposal to the House’s version which was passed on a 216-214 vote on July 22^nd, prior to leaving for recess. The $95 billion House version includes $60 billion to fund the war in Iran and $10 billion for House Administration, aiming to give financial incentives to states that implement certain parts of the SAVE America Act, such as voter-id and proof of citizenship to register. The Senate’s version keeps dollar caps at the same level for agencies the House included but adds additional billions of dollars for Homeland Security, Judiciary and Energy.

However, despite text release, the Senate scrapped plans to start the floor process as Thune said it would not have had the votes, largely due to the inclusion of elements of the SAVE America Act. Additionally, Senate Republicans are considering pushing any vote on Reconciliation 3.0 until after the midterm elections in November, given they only have three weeks to work with in September before leaving again for a month during the October recess. President Trump, who continues to focus almost exclusively on the SAVE Act when talking about any legislation moving through Congress, seems more unlikely to get his wish prior to the elections and Republican leadership in the Senate is signaling they are okay with it.

Midterm Election Update

The Democrats’ chances for winning the House have stayed the same throughout the summer. Historically, the party in the White House has almost always lost seats in the midterms, with the Republicans in 2002 and Democrats in 1998 marking the only two instances since the end of World War II when that didn’t occur. Polling and prediction markets demonstrate a strong likelihood Democrats will retake control of the gavel after four years in the minority, despite the redistricting shuffle which was a net-positive for Republicans. Democrats are targeting Republican-controlled seats in California, Pennsylvania and New York, to find the three votes needed to take the majority, while Republicans look to take new districts in Texas, Florida and others across the South.

On the other side, the momentum that the Democrats felt they were gaining to retake control of the Senate has slowed slightly. The task for the Democrats was always going to be more difficult than in the House because of the numbers it would take to pull off the flip. They needed to hold all their current seats and pick up four additional ones, in a cycle when many weren’t available. While polling continues to look good for former Governor Roy Cooper in his bid to take Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R-NC) seat in North Carolina and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) appears confident in his chances against Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA-10), Graham Platner’s scandal-ridden dropout in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed’s win in the Democratic primary in Michigan could cost Democrats two states they felt confident with in the spring.

After Graham Platner’s withdrawal as the nominee in July, following the surfacing of misconduct allegations, the Maine Democratic Party held a nominating convention and confirmed former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson as the next nominee. While two polls since have shown Jackson a few points ahead, he is polling below Platner’s May numbers against Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed won the primary against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI-11), finishing with one percentage point more after out-polling Stevens by double-digits for the month of July. Stevens consistently polled better than El-Sayed against Republican candidate Mike Rogers, and the narrowness of El-Sayed’s primary victory has given Democrats a new hill to climb in their path to flip the Senate.

Elsewhere, races also remain tight. In Texas, State Rep. James Talarico is leading narrowly in the polls against State Attorney General Ken Paxton, and while Democrats remain confident in Talarico’s candidacy, Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994 and no Democratic senator has been elected either since 1988. In Ohio, polling between former Sen. Sherrod Brown and incumbent Jon Husted (R-OH) continues to go back-and-forth, and in Alaska former Rep. Mary Peltola and incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan are polling near even.

Additionally, two surprisingly tight races have appeared in Nebraska and Iowa. Cindy Burbank, who won the Democratic primary in Nebraska, has dropped out to clear the way for Dan Osborn to run against incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE), as Osborn is considered to have a better chance. In Iowa, State Rep. Joshua Turek is polling within the margin of error against Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA-2) to see who will replace the retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA).

In Massachusetts, the September primary between incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA-6) is fast approaching, with the latest polls having Markey leading by six points. Both candidates have participated in two debates thus far, with topics ranging from affordability and immigration to the war in Iran and transportation improvements. They are scheduled to have one final debate on August 20^th before the September 1^st primary.

Wrap-up:

When Congress returns from recess in September, legislators face a short calendar to avoid a shutdown and finalize Reconciliation 3.0. Lawmakers will need to reconcile competing House and Senate funding timelines and resolve disagreements over political appointee oversight before the October 1^st deadline to fund the government. The SAVE America Act provisions continue to complicate prospects for any reconciliation package, with Senate Republicans increasingly signaling they may punt that vote until after the midterms given multiple members have publicly announced intent to vote down any bill with the identification provisions.

On the election front, Democrats remain favorably positioned to retake the House despite a redistricting map that favored Republicans, but their path to a Senate majority has grown more difficult. Turbulence in Maine and Michigan has introduced uncertainty in two races Democrats once viewed as reachable in the spring, even as North Carolina, Georgia, and a cluster of unexpectedly competitive races in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Nebraska, and Iowa keep the majority within potential reach. With just under three months until Election Day, the legislative agenda and the race for the Senate both remain very much in the air.